When did the yield on 3-month Treasury bills recently exceed the yield on 10-year Treasury notes, a potential sign of an impending recession?
Answer: On October 25, 2022, the yield on 3-month Treasury bills rose above the yield on 10-year Treasury notes (4.14% vs. 4.10%, respectively). This 3-month/10-year inverted yield curve has indicated a coming recession within 16 months eight out of the last ten times over the past 50 years.
