Experts Divided on Whether Home Sales Will Rise or Fall in 2022
January 12, 2022 | Paul Bergeron | GlobeSt.com
A panel of economists and housing experts is evenly split on whether sales will rise or fall in 2022 as concerns over worsening affordability collide with expectations for rising inventory.
When asked, 41% of participants in the latest Zillow Home Price Expectations survey (ZHPES) said sales will grow, 41% predict a slowdown, and 18% believe sales will remain roughly the same.
There were about 6.32 million homes sold from January through November of 2021, the most sales in that time period since 2006. Of those, roughly 5.61 million were existing homes. Zillow’s own forecast calls for sales of existing homes to increase a bit in 2022, drawing on recent sales performance, household formation rates and the expectation that mortgage rates will remain relatively low, offering attractive financing for home buyers.
“In America’s frenzied pandemic-era housing market, buyers and sellers have both defied expectations: Buyers have forged on in the face of record-fast price appreciation, and homeowners have steadfastly demurred from cashing in on this selling opportunity,” Jeff Tucker, senior economist at Zillow, said in prepared remarks.
“The outlook for home sales in 2022 hinges on which side yields first. If buyers finally balk at unaffordable prices, sales volumes could fall. But if homeowners finally start listing their homes en masse, we could see a sales bonanza, cooling the pace of appreciation. Our expert survey panel was split right down the middle on which scenario to expect.”
